In October 2026, the newest public data shows luxury asking prices still easing nationally, while trophy sales keep setting records, led by South Florida.
- National: Realtor.com's September report (released Oct. 14) put the entry point to luxury at $1,199,321, down 3.6% year over year and the 30th straight month of annual decline.
- Miami:
- Miami-Dade logged 24 sales of $30 million or more through September. That already beats its full-year 2025 record of 21 (MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, Oct. 16).
- The Miami Beaches' single-family median rose 17% to $3.3 million in Q3 (Corcoran).
- Manhattan: Q3 luxury inventory fell more than 14% while luxury deals rose 7% (Miller Samuel data via The Real Deal).
Every figure below names its source and reporting period.
At a glance
| Indicator | Figure | Source · period |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. luxury entry point (90th pct. of listings) | $1,199,321 (−3.6% YoY) | Realtor.com · Sept 2026 |
| U.S. ultra-luxury threshold (99th pct.) | $5,128,119 (−5.3% YoY) | Realtor.com · Sept 2026 |
| U.S. luxury median sale price (top 5%) | $1.28M (+5.5% YoY) | Redfin via The Real Deal · 3 mo. to Aug 31, 2026 |
| Miami metro luxury median sale price | $4.9M (+18% YoY) | Redfin via The Real Deal · 3 mo. to Aug 31, 2026 |
| Miami-Dade $30M+ sales | 24 YTD (2025 full year: 21) | MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld · through Sept 2026 |
| Miami Beaches single-family median | $3.3M (+17% YoY) | Corcoran · Q3 2026 |
| Manhattan condo/co-op median sale price | $1.25M (record; +6% YoY) | Miller Samuel via The Real Deal · Q3 2026 |
| Manhattan $4M+ contracts | 28 signed | Olshan Luxury Market Report · Oct 12–18, 2026 |
| Los Angeles luxury entry point (metro) | $3,949,634 (No. 1 U.S.) | Realtor.com · Sept 2026 |
National: thresholds down, sellers faster
Realtor.com's September 2026 Luxury Housing Report (Oct. 14, 2026) measures asking prices of active listings:
- Entry point (90th percentile): $1,199,321. That is down 0.1% from August and 3.6% from a year earlier, the lowest since January 2023, and 14.1% below the May 2023 peak of roughly $1.40 million.
- Higher tiers: the 95th percentile was $1,885,731 (−3.5% YoY) and the 99th percentile $5,128,119 (−5.3% YoY). All three tiers are in their 30th month of annual decline.
- Pace: listings at the 90th percentile spent a median 76 days on market. That is 3 days faster than September 2025, though 2 days slower than August.
- Million-dollar listings: 12.5% of active inventory.
Closed sales tell a firmer story. For the three months ending Aug. 31, 2026, Redfin's national luxury median sale price (the top 5% of each metro) rose 5.5% year over year to $1.28 million, against a 2.5% rise for non-luxury homes. That is according to Redfin data reported by The Real Deal on Sept. 30.
Why the numbers differ: Realtor.com tracks listing prices at fixed percentiles; Redfin tracks closed sales in each metro's top 5%. A market can see its asking threshold fall while closed luxury prices rise.
Miami: a record year at the very top
Ultra-luxury. Through September 2026, MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld counted 24 Miami-Dade single-family and condo sales of $30 million or more. That is 14.3% above the county's full-year 2025 record of 21, and the association projects 32 by year-end. The count is MLS-based, so it largely excludes new-construction, pre-construction and condo-conversion sales.
Prices (Redfin, three months ending Aug. 31, 2026, via The Real Deal):
| Metro | Luxury median sale price | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | $4.9M | +18% |
| Fort Lauderdale | $2.4M | more than +15% |
| Tampa | $1.6M | more than +14% |
| West Palm Beach | $4.6M | +12.6% |
Q3 2026, Miami Beaches (Corcoran: Sunny Isles Beach to Key Biscayne):
- Single-family:
- Closings rose 20% to 95, the best third quarter since 2021.
- The median rose 17% to $3.3M and the average 28% to $7.7M.
- Sales over $5M jumped 72%, with twice as many over $20M.
- Single-family inventory fell 27% to 256, the lowest since 2014.
- Condos: closings rose 13% to 670 and the median rose 6% to $630K. The average fell 10% to $1.4M because closings over $5M dropped 30%.
Q3 2026, Miami Coastal Mainland (Corcoran: Aventura to Coral Gables and Coconut Grove):
- Single-family closings rose 8% to 232.
- The median rose 19% to $2.1M, with sales above $5M up 15%.
- Single-family inventory fell 30% to 361.
September 2026, Miami-Dade overall (MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld):
- Sales: total sales slipped 2% to 1,733, but total dollar volume rose 15.41% to $1.8 billion. Single-family dollar volume rose 21.31% to $1.2 billion.
- Inventory: total active listings fell 10.1% to 16,242. Single-family supply was 5.1 months (a seller's market); condo supply was 12.3 months (a buyer's market).
- Cash: cash buyers made up 38.3% of closed sales.
New York: thin supply, firm prices
Q3 2026, Manhattan (Miller Samuel data, as reported by The Real Deal on Oct. 2):
- Inventory: listings fell 10.7% year over year. Luxury condo and co-op inventory (top 10%) fell more than 14%, and townhouse inventory fell 33%.
- Sales: condo/co-op closed sales rose 8%, and luxury deals rose 7%.
- Prices: the condo/co-op median sale price held at a record $1.25 million (+6%). The luxury median held at about $5.9 million.
- New development: listings "plunged" nearly 40%. Marketproof counted just 2,800 new condos at the end of August, the lowest since 2014.
Q3 2026, Manhattan (Elliman Intel / Marketproof, data as of Oct. 1, 2026):
- All property types: signed contracts fell 13.0% to 2,126, while the average contract price rose 3.6% to $2.13 million. Recorded sales fell 6.0% to 3,588, and the median recorded price rose 6.7% to $1.30 million.
- New development: contracts fell 34.4% to 217, but the median new-development contract price rose 17.3% to $2.57 million.
The two reports use different data sets and scopes; see "How this report is built."
October contracts (Olshan Luxury Market Report, $4M+ asking):
- Sept. 28–Oct. 4: 30 contracts, the first 30-contract week since early June (via The Real Deal). The top deal was a resale at Related's 70 Vestry Street, asking $34 million.
- Oct. 12–18: 28 contracts (17 condos, 7 co-ops, 4 townhouses). The No. 1 deal was 17A at 551 West 21st Street, asking $17 million.
Los Angeles: the priciest luxury entry in the U.S.
Listing threshold. In Realtor.com's September 2026 report, Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim had the highest metro luxury entry point in the country: $3,949,634. That is up 0.8% on the month and down 1.1% year over year.
Trophy deals (dates as reported):
- Casa Encantada, Bel-Air: $130 million to Peter Thiel through an LLC, bought at a July foreclosure auction. The Los Angeles Times reported it on Sept. 30, 2026, citing The Wall Street Journal, and called it one of the priciest home sales ever in Los Angeles.
- 100 Rockledge Road, Laguna Beach (Orange County): $82.6 million, which TRD reported (Oct. 19, citing the WSJ) as the second-highest residential sale in Orange County history. It had been listed in July at $112 million.
LA-wide Q3 2026 closing statistics from a primary source were not available at publication. See the September report for earlier Redfin LA windows.
Notable verified sales (Q3 2026 closings and deals reported Sept.–Oct. 2026)
| Property | Price | Market | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Encantada, Bel-Air | $130M (July auction) | Los Angeles | LA Times, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| 100 Rockledge Rd. | $82.6M | Laguna Beach, CA | The Real Deal, Oct. 19, 2026 |
| 2740 North Bay Rd., Mid-Beach | $72M (Q3; seller paid $20.8M in 2022) | Miami Beach | Corcoran Q3 2026 |
| 255 Ocean Blvd. (record for Golden Beach single-family) | $69.5M (sold in September) | Golden Beach, FL | The Real Deal, Oct. 13, 2026 |
| North Venetian Way, San Marco Island (Venetian Islands record) | $48.5M (above $47.5M ask) | Miami | The Real Deal, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| The Surf Club Four Seasons, S-1003 | $30.25M ($7,143/sq ft) | Surfside | Corcoran Q3 2026 |
| 720 Lake Rd., Upper East Side | $27.25M (Q3) | Miami | Corcoran Q3 2026 |
The Real Deal linked the Venetian Islands purchase to venture capitalist Hemant Taneja; property records show a trust as the buyer. The Golden Beach buyer is a Delaware LLC.
What it means for buyers and sellers
- Shop the tier, not the headline. National asking thresholds are still falling (Realtor.com, September), but South Florida's top tier is setting count and price records (MIAMI REALTORS, Corcoran Q3).
- Inventory is the story in Miami Beach and Manhattan. Single-family inventory in the Miami Beaches is at its lowest since 2014, and Manhattan luxury listings are down more than 14%. Well-priced turnkey homes are moving.
- New development is scarce in Manhattan, with listings down nearly 40% and contracts down 34.4%, even as new-development prices climb (+17.3% median contract price, Elliman Intel).
- Rates matter less at the top. MIAMI REALTORS cites mortgage rates at 7.46% as of Oct. 13, yet 38.3% of Miami-Dade sales were cash in September.
- Read the period. Quarterly reports (Q3), monthly releases (September) and weekly contracts (October) measure different things. Compare like with like.
How this report is built
- National:
- Realtor.com listing-price percentiles, September 2026;
- Redfin top-5% closed sales, three months ending Aug. 31, 2026, as reported by The Real Deal.
- Miami:
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, September 2026 release of Oct. 16;
- The Corcoran Report, 3Q 2026, Miami Beaches & Miami Coastal Mainland.
- New York:
- Miller Samuel Q3 2026 data as published by The Real Deal (RealPlus data);
- Elliman Intel Manhattan Q3 2026 (Marketproof);
- Olshan weekly contracts.
- Los Angeles: Realtor.com September 2026, plus individual sales as reported.
- Definitions vary: "luxury" means the top 10% of listings (Realtor.com), the top 5% of sales (Redfin) or the top 10% of sales (Miller Samuel).
- Revisions: sources may revise data.
Talk with a local agent
Browse Find a Realtor on Haute Real Estate Network.
Featured: Haute Real Estate Network members in these markets include:
- Miami: Wesley Ulloa & Bianca Guevara (LUXE Properties, Coral Gables) and Maria Kuzina (Miami Luxury Real Estate, Miami Beach).
- New York: Leslie S. Modell (Sotheby's International Realty) and Richard Steinberg (The Richard Steinberg Team).
- Los Angeles: Joyce Rey (Coldwell Banker Global Luxury) and Christine Hong (Hilton & Hyland).
Haute Real Estate Network members are featured through paid membership. Membership is not an endorsement or a ranking.
FAQs
Is the luxury real estate market up or down in October 2026?+
It depends on the measure. Realtor.com's September listing threshold was down 3.6% year over year, to $1,199,321. Redfin's closed luxury median for the three months to Aug. 31 was up 5.5%, to $1.28 million.
How many $30 million homes have sold in Miami-Dade in 2026?+
Twenty-four through September, already above 2025's full-year record of 21 (MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld).
What happened in Manhattan luxury in Q3 2026?+
Luxury inventory fell more than 14% and luxury deals rose 7%, with the luxury median around $5.9 million (Miller Samuel via The Real Deal). Weekly $4M+ contracts hit 30 in the week of Sept. 28–Oct. 4 (Olshan).
Which U.S. market has the highest luxury entry price?+
Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, at $3,949,634 in September 2026 (Realtor.com).
What were the biggest home sales this fall?+
Among those verified: Casa Encantada in Bel-Air ($130M, July auction, reported Sept. 30), 100 Rockledge Road in Laguna Beach ($82.6M), and a $69.5M Golden Beach record.
How often is this report updated?+
Each monthly report uses the newest releases available and labels its data period.
Sources
- Realtor.com Economic Research, "September 2026 Luxury Housing Report" (Anthony Smith, Oct. 14, 2026), https://www.realtor.com/research/september-2026-luxury/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Real Deal, "Florida luxury home prices surpass nation's with largest gains in August" (Redfin data, three months ending Aug. 31, 2026; Sept. 30, 2026), https://therealdeal.com/data/national/2026/florida-luxury-real-estate-price-growth-outpaces-us-market/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, "Miami-Dade Breaks Annual Record for $30 Million-Plus Home Sales in Just Nine Months" (September 2026 statistics; Oct. 16, 2026), https://www.miamirealtors.com/2026/10/16/miami-dade-breaks-annual-record-for-30-million-plus-home-sales-in-just-nine-months/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Corcoran Report, 3Q 2026, Miami Beaches & Miami Coastal Mainland (PDF) (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Real Deal, "'Burning off supply': Manhattan inventory slips as deals rise in Q3" (Miller Samuel data; Oct. 2, 2026), https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/10/02/manhattan-inventory-slips-as-deals-rise-in-q3/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- Elliman Intel, "The Manhattan Market Pulse, Q3 2026 Sales Report" (Marketproof; data as of Oct. 1, 2026) (PDF) (fetched 2026-10-20).
- Olshan Realty, Olshan Luxury Market Report, Oct. 12–18, 2026, https://api.olshan.com/marketreport.php (fetched 2026-10-20). The Real Deal, "Manhattan's lux contracts begin October on the upswing" (Olshan, Sept. 28–Oct. 4; Oct. 5, 2026), https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/10/05/manhattans-lux-contracts-begin-october-on-the-upswing/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- Los Angeles Times, "Peter Thiel buys troubled Bel-Air mega-mansion for $130 million" (Sept. 30, 2026), https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-09-30/peter-thiel-bel-air-mansion-130-million (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Real Deal, "Oceanfront Laguna Beach mansion finds buyer at $83M amid tight inventory" (Oct. 19, 2026), https://therealdeal.com/la/2026/10/19/waterfront-laguna-beach-mansion-sells-for-83-million/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Real Deal, "Mystery buyer of Golden Beach mansion has the town talking. Is it Jeff Bezos?" ($69.5M record; Oct. 13, 2026 ET), https://therealdeal.com/miami/2026/10/13/jeff-bezos-linked-to-buyer-of-golden-beach-mansion/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
- The Real Deal, "Billionaire venture capitalist pays record $49M for Venetian Islands mansion" ($48.5M; Oct. 16, 2026), https://therealdeal.com/miami/2026/10/16/billionaire-hemant-taneja-pays-48-5-million-for-miami-home/ (fetched 2026-10-20).
This report is editorial and informational only, not investment, tax, legal or brokerage advice. Statistics come from third-party sources that may revise their data, and definitions of luxury vary by source and market.