This Haute Living market report summarizes luxury real estate activity across 15 major U.S. cities for July 2026 — including median prices in the $2M+ tier, inventory shifts, days on market, and buyer/seller conditions. July 2026 luxury market intelligence across 15 premier U.S. cities — May 2026 closing data. San Francisco Heat Index 95 with 74.8% of sales above list. Santa Barbara top-tier ZHVI hits $2.29M (highest in dataset). Naples price-drop rate 47.6%. Palm Beach luxury sample median $14.5M with listings to $205M. Sourced from Redfin and Zillow Research.
| Value | Measure |
|---|---|
| 74.8% | SF Sales Above List |
| $14.5M | Palm Beach Lux Median |
| 47.6% | Naples Price Drop Rate |
| $2.29M | Santa Barbara Top-Tier ZHVI |
Source: Redfin City Pages + Zillow Research CSVs + Zillow Market Overview · Published July 10, 2026 · Data: May 31, 2026
Executive Summary
May 2026 data shows luxury values softening across most markets — while San Francisco and New York hold firm and Santa Barbara quietly emerges as the most valuable top-tier luxury market in the entire dataset at $2.29M ZHVI.
San Francisco's Heat Index holds at 95 (Very Hot) with 74.8% of sales closing above list — the most competitive market in the dataset. NYC top-tier ZHVI is up 4.6% YoY at $1.22M with a Very Hot index of 72. Both cities are defying a national softening trend that has spread to Miami, Dallas, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Houston, Maui, and Naples.
Naples and Maui share the Cool signal (Heat Index 28) with top-tier ZHVI declines of 4.6% and 6.3% YoY respectively. Naples now shows a 47.6% price-drop rate — the highest of any market tracked. Palm Beach posts a luxury sample median of $14.5M with listings ranging to $205M and a sale-to-list ratio of 0.927 — the lowest in the dataset. Santa Barbara has the highest top-tier ZHVI at $2.29M (+2.4% YoY) and moves in just 19 days-to-pending.
This report covers all 15 markets with full Redfin general market data, Redfin $2M+ luxury segment data, and Zillow city plus metro CSV data. All figures reflect May 2026. MoM deltas compare to March 2026.
Luxury Real Estate by Market
San Francisco, CA
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $2.85M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market +16.1% YoY → $1.70M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 46 |
| Price Range | $2.19M – $19.9M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.99M · +0.5% YoY |
| City DOM | 14 days |
| % Sales Over List | 74.8% ← Highest |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 1.113 |
| Metro Inventory | 8,425 · −10.6% YoY |
| Market condition | Extreme Seller's Market |
City inventory +34.1% MoM · ZHVI +2.7% MoM. 74.8% of sales close above list — the highest over-list rate ever recorded in this dataset. Sale-to-list ratio 1.113 confirms multi-offer conditions are standard.
New York, NY
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.30M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market +3.0% YoY → $875K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 516 |
| Price Range | $2.1M – $65.0M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.22M · +4.6% YoY |
| % Sales Over List | 19.7% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 13.8% |
| Metro New Listings | 15,655 · +0.3% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 53 days |
| Market condition | Seller's Market — Rising Values |
City median +0.8% MoM · ZHVI +0.6% MoM. Manhattan's luxury market classified Very Hot with the metro top-tier ZHVI up 4.6% YoY — the strongest ZHVI gain among flagship markets.
Santa Barbara, CA
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.17M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | City median −9.1% YoY → $1.91M (broad mkt) |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 162 |
| Price Range | $2.05M – $18.95M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $2.29M · +2.4% YoY ← Highest |
| Days to Pending (City) | 19 days |
| % Sales Over List | 24.1% |
| Metro Inventory | 786 · +4.4% YoY |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 19.3% |
| Market condition | Balanced — Strongest ZHVI in Dataset |
ZHVI +1.8% MoM · Lux count +1.9% MoM. Santa Barbara's top-tier ZHVI of $2,290,061 is now the highest of any market tracked — ahead of San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.
Palm Beach, FL
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $14.50M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | City median −23.6% YoY → $2.60M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 71 |
| Price Range | $2.4M – $205.0M |
| Zillow Typical Value (City) | $2.09M · −1.4% YoY |
| City DOM | 114 days |
| Days to Pending | 105 days |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 0.927 ← Lowest |
| Price Drops | 35.5% |
| Market condition | Ultra-Luxury — Patient Buyer's Market |
Palm Beach rolls into Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA for Zillow metro data. The 0.927 sale-to-list ratio reflects meaningful negotiation at this price level. Listings range to $205M.
Aspen, CO
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $15.93M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Zillow city value +6.8% YoY → $3.43M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 110 |
| Price Range | $2.05M – $85.0M |
| Zillow Typical Value (City) | $3.43M · +6.8% YoY |
| City DOM | 124 days |
| Homes Sold (May) | 44 |
| Price Cuts | — (no data) |
| Metro Zillow Data | Not published |
| Market condition | Ultra-Luxury Seller's Market |
City inventory −10.7% MoM · ZHVI −2.9% MoM. Highest luxury sample median in the report at $15.93M. Structural scarcity — pricing set by relationships and off-market access.
Los Angeles, CA
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.27M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market −0.7% YoY → $1.05M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 1,735 ← Most |
| Price Range | $2.0M – $38.5M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.67M · +0.8% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 24 days |
| % Sales Over List | 38.4% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 20.7% |
| Metro Inventory | 24,355 · +2.9% YoY |
| Market condition | Bifurcated: Hot Broad / Buyer-Leaning Luxury |
City median +2.4% MoM · Inventory +13.4% MoM. The deepest luxury inventory in the country at 1,735 active $2M+ listings — buyers have real selection while the broader market remains Hot.
Dallas, TX
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.40M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market +9.8% YoY → $499K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 346 |
| Price Range | $2.0M – $21.5M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $620K · −3.1% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 25 days |
| % Sales Over List | 17.5% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 29.4% |
| Metro Inventory | 34,548 · −1.4% YoY |
| Market condition | Two-Speed: Hot Broad / Soft Luxury |
ZHVI +0.8% MoM · Pending pace +39% MoM. Dallas broad market up 9.8% YoY while top-tier ZHVI eases 3.1% — a clear two-speed condition inviting luxury value entry.
Hamptons, NY
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.20M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Zillow city value −2.4% YoY → $2.08M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 26 |
| Price Range | $2.19M – $85.0M |
| Zillow Typical Value (City) | $2.08M · −2.4% YoY |
| City DOM | 42 days |
| Days to Pending (City) | 121 days |
| Price Drops | 19.8% |
| Metro Zillow Data | Not published |
| Market condition | Seasonal Peak — Summer Demand Now |
Luxury listings −23.5% MoM · Peak season underway. The Hamptons operates on its own seasonal clock; 121 days to pending reflects deliberate high-consideration purchasing, not weakness.
Miami, FL
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.48M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market −0.4% YoY → $652K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 517 |
| Price Range | $2.1M – $48.0M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $905K · −1.1% YoY |
| City DOM | 113 days |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 20.4% |
| Metro Inventory | 52,594 · −11.3% YoY |
| Days to Pending (Metro) | 99 days |
| Market condition | Buyer's Market — Luxury Tier |
City median −3.2% MoM · Lux count −9.5% MoM. NYC/Miami divergence widens for a second month — ultra-luxury buyers belong in Miami; ultra-luxury sellers belong in New York.
Las Vegas, NV
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $2.99M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market −0.1% YoY → $450K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 311 |
| Price Range | $2.0M – $22.5M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $625K · −2.2% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 30 days |
| % Sales Over List | 18.7% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 27.4% |
| Metro Inventory | 12,738 · +5.2% YoY |
| Market condition | Warm — Watch for Downgrade |
City median +0.4% MoM · Days-to-pending +32% YoY. Henderson and Summerlin luxury corridors continue to attract California exodus buyers at still-accessible price points.
Atlanta, GA
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.25M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market −1.6% YoY → $429K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 244 |
| Price Range | $2.08M – $9.45M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $638K · −1.2% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 38 days |
| % Sales Over List | 21.2% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 26.7% |
| Metro Inventory | 32,204 · +2.4% YoY |
| Market condition | Buyer-Leaning — Luxury Tier |
City median −2.4% MoM · Inventory +10.4% MoM. Atlanta softens modestly across price and values; luxury tier benefits from continued corporate relocation demand.
Honolulu, HI
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.39M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market +5.2% YoY → $589K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 104 |
| Price Range | $2.09M – $15.0M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.39M · +1.3% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 43 days |
| % Sales Over List | 13.5% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 16.9% |
| Metro Inventory | 3,782 · −6.8% YoY |
| Market condition | Balanced — Holding Unlike Maui |
City ZHVI −1.2% MoM · New listings −13.7% YoY. Luxury condos in Kakaako and Ala Moana remain the primary $2M+ driver.
Houston, TX
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.07M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | Broad market +1.4% YoY → $350K |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 224 |
| Price Range | $2.05M – $12.5M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $527K · −1.3% YoY |
| Days to Pending | 31 days |
| % Sales Over List | 14.8% |
| Price Cuts (Metro) | 26.1% |
| Metro Inventory | 36,651 · +8.1% YoY |
| Market condition | Buyer's Market — Most Accessible Entry |
City inventory +121% MoM · Median +1.4% MoM. Houston city-wide inventory surged 121% MoM — a significant supply increase that expands buyer options substantially.
Naples, FL
| Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses) | $3.40M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | City median −10.4% YoY → $1.34M |
| Active $2M+ Listings | 564 |
| Price Range | $2.15M – $29.7M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.34M · −4.6% YoY |
| City DOM | 83 days |
| Price Drops | 47.6% ← Highest |
| Days to Pending (Metro) | 123 days |
| Metro Inventory | 7,622 · −15.3% YoY |
| Market condition | Buyer's Market — Deep Luxury Supply |
Lux count −24.1% MoM · Median +14.4% MoM (volatile). 564 active $2M+ listings and 47.6% price-drop rate make Naples the deepest buyer's market in this report alongside Maui.
Maui, HI
| Sample Luxury Median List (Broader Maui ZIPs) | $4.15M |
|---|---|
| Year over year | City median −10.3% YoY → $1.01M |
| Active $2M+ (Kahului) | Thin† |
| Price Range | $2.1M – $17.95M |
| Top-Tier ZHVI (Metro) | $1.72M · −6.3% YoY ← Worst |
| City DOM | 93 days |
| Metro Median Sale YoY | −10.3% |
| Days Pending (Metro) | 128 days · +24.3% YoY |
| Heat Index | 28 · Cool |
| Market condition | Buyer's Market — Steepest ZHVI Decline |
† Kahului city-limits count only. Broader Maui $2M+ inventory captured in neighboring ZIPs. Steepest top-tier ZHVI decline in the dataset at −6.3% YoY.
Five Signals
San Francisco: Still Untouchable
Heat Index 95. 74.8% of sales closing above list — the highest rate ever recorded in this dataset. Sale-to-list ratio of 1.113. Only 46 active $2M+ listings. City median +16.1% YoY. The extraordinary demand is concentrated below the ultra-luxury band — top-tier metro ZHVI is up just 0.5% — making the $2M–$4M San Francisco tier the most fiercely contested luxury asset class in the country. For buyers here: move immediately, offer over, and treat off-market access as essential.
Santa Barbara: The Quiet Standout Nobody Is Talking About
Santa Barbara's top-tier ZHVI of $2,290,061 is now the highest of any market in this report — surpassing San Francisco ($1.99M), New York ($1.22M), and Los Angeles ($1.67M). Values are up 2.4% YoY. The market moves in 19 days-to-pending with 24.1% of sales above list. 162 active $2M+ listings provide reasonable selection. This is not a headline market. That may be precisely why the data looks the way it does.
Naples and Maui: The Buyer's Window Is Open
Both markets sit at Cool (Heat Index 28). Naples: 47.6% price-drop rate — the highest in the dataset — top-tier ZHVI −4.6% YoY, 564 active $2M+ homes, city median −10.4% YoY, and 123-day metro days-to-pending. Maui: top-tier ZHVI −6.3% YoY — the steepest decline tracked — city median −10.3% YoY, and 128-day metro days-to-pending (+24.3% YoY). Combined, these two markets represent the deepest buyer's opportunity in the luxury dataset. Neither condition is permanent.
New York vs. Miami: The Divergence Widens for a Second Month
NYC top-tier ZHVI +4.6% YoY. Miami top-tier ZHVI −1.1% YoY. NYC Heat Index 72 (Very Hot). Miami Heat Index 38 (Neutral). NYC price-cut share 13.8%; Miami 20.4%. Miami city median fell another 3.2% MoM. For the second consecutive month, the verdict is unchanged: ultra-luxury buyers belong in Miami, ultra-luxury sellers belong in New York. The gap between these two flagship luxury markets is widening, not narrowing.
Palm Beach: A Market That Operates by Its Own Rules
105-day days-to-pending. 114-day median DOM. Sale-to-list ratio of 0.927 — the lowest in the dataset. 35.5% of listings with price drops. City median down 23.6% YoY. And yet: the luxury sample median list price is $14.5M, with listings reaching $205M. Palm Beach is not a distressed market. It is a deliberate one. The buyers transacting here are not in a hurry, and the properties — with ranges extending to nine figures — do not require urgency. This is how ultra-high-net-worth real estate moves when price is not a constraint.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the luxury real estate market like in San Francisco in May 2026?
San Francisco remains the most competitive luxury market in the U.S. as of May 2026. The Zillow Market Heat Index is 95 (Very Hot), 74.8% of city sales closed above list price — the highest in the dataset — and the city median sale price rose 16.1% year-over-year to $1,698,983. Median days on market is 14 days, days-to-pending is 13, and the sale-to-list ratio is 1.113. For luxury buyers ($2M+), there are only 46 active listings with a sample median of $2.85M. Metro inventory is down 10.6% year-over-year. Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
Is Naples, Florida a buyer's market for luxury real estate in 2026?
Yes. Naples is the clearest buyer's market in the dataset as of May 2026. The Zillow Market Heat Index is 28 (Cool), 47.6% of listings have taken a price drop — the highest rate of any market tracked — the top-tier ZHVI is $1,337,542 down 4.6% year-over-year, and median sale price fell 10.4% YoY to $1,344,196. There are 564 active $2M+ listings with a sample median of $3.4M. Days-to-pending is 123 days (+13.9% YoY). Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
What is the most expensive luxury real estate market by top-tier home value in 2026?
As of May 2026, Santa Barbara, California has the highest top-tier Zillow Home Value Index of any market tracked at $2,290,061 — up 2.4% year-over-year. This surpasses San Francisco ($1,994,433), New York ($1,221,103), and Los Angeles ($1,672,701). Santa Barbara also moves fast: 19-day median days-to-pending and 24.1% of sales closing above list. Source: Zillow Research, May 2026.
What is the luxury real estate market like in New York City in May 2026?
New York City is a strong seller's market as of May 2026. The Zillow Heat Index is 72 (Very Hot), 19.7% of city sales closed above list, and the top-tier ZHVI is $1,221,103 — up 4.6% year-over-year. There are 516 active $2M+ listings with a sample median of $3.3M (range to $65M). Metro new listings rose 0.3% YoY. Price-cut share is 13.8%. Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
How does Miami compare to New York for luxury real estate in May 2026?
The divergence between Miami and New York continues widening as of May 2026. NYC top-tier ZHVI +4.6% YoY; Miami −1.1%. NYC Heat Index 72 (Very Hot); Miami 38 (Neutral). NYC price-cut share 13.8%; Miami 20.4%. Miami city median fell 3.2% MoM. For the second consecutive month, ultra-luxury buyers should be in Miami and ultra-luxury sellers should be in New York. Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
What is happening in the Palm Beach luxury real estate market in 2026?
Palm Beach operates as an ultra-luxury, deliberately paced market as of May 2026. The luxury sample median is $14,500,000 with listings ranging to $205M. Days-to-pending is 105 days, median DOM is 114 days, and the sale-to-list ratio is 0.927 — the lowest in the dataset. City median is $2,598,445 with 35.5% of listings taking price drops. There are 71 active $2M+ listings. Palm Beach rolls into the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA for Zillow metro data. Source: Redfin and Zillow, May 2026.
Is Maui a buyer's market for luxury real estate in 2026?
Yes. Maui is one of the two softest luxury markets in the dataset as of May 2026. The Zillow Heat Index is 28 (Cool), the top-tier ZHVI is $1,715,303 down 6.3% year-over-year — the steepest decline tracked — city median fell 10.3% YoY, and metro days-to-pending is 128 days (+24.3% YoY). Metro new listings are down 16.3% YoY. The luxury sample median is $4.15M from a thin Kahului city-limits pool. Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
Is Santa Barbara a good luxury real estate market in 2026?
Santa Barbara has the strongest top-tier ZHVI fundamentals of any market tracked as of May 2026 at $2,290,061 (+2.4% YoY). Days-to-pending is 19 days, 24.1% of sales close above list, and metro new listings rose 1.1% YoY. The Heat Index is 62 (Hot). 162 active $2M+ listings with a sample median of $3.17M. The city median sale price fell 9.1% YoY — but this reflects the broader market, not the luxury tier, which is appreciating. Source: Redfin and Zillow Research, May 2026.
How many $2M+ luxury homes are for sale in major U.S. markets in May 2026?
Across 15 premier U.S. markets tracked as of May 2026: Los Angeles leads at 1,735, followed by Naples (564), Miami (517), New York (516), Dallas (346), Las Vegas (311), Atlanta (244), Houston (224), Santa Barbara (162), Aspen (110), Honolulu (104), Palm Beach (71), San Francisco (46), and Hamptons (26). Maui's Kahului city-limit count is thin. Source: Redfin filtered listings data, May 2026.
Which U.S. luxury real estate markets are rising in value in May 2026?
Markets with rising top-tier Zillow ZHVI year-over-year as of May 2026: Santa Barbara (+2.4%, $2.29M), New York City (+4.6%, $1.22M), Honolulu (+1.3%, $1.39M), Los Angeles (+0.8%, $1.67M), San Francisco (+0.5%, $1.99M). Markets with declining top-tier ZHVI: Maui (−6.3%), Naples (−4.6%), Dallas (−3.1%), Las Vegas (−2.2%), Miami (−1.1%), Atlanta (−1.2%), Houston (−1.3%). Source: Zillow Research ZHVI Top-Tier CSV, May 2026.